QB

Josh Allen is PFF's number one quarterback and sits alone in their top tier. He has finished top three in fantasy six straight seasons with twelve or more rushing touchdowns in each of the last three. The trade for DJ Moore should push the passing volume back up after a down 2025. He turns 30 before the season, which matters someday, but not this year.

RBs

James Cook jumped from 12.9 carries a game to 19.1 last season without losing his passing-down work, and he kept his efficiency at 5.3 yards per carry behind a line that climbed to sixth in run blocking. He is a solid pick in the late 2nd or 3rd round. Ray Davis is one of the best pure handcuffs in fantasy — when Cook missed a game as a rookie, Davis went for 20 carries, 97 yards, and 55 more through the air. If Cook ever goes down, Davis leads the backfield of one of the best offenses in football.

WRs

DJ Moore arrives from Chicago and gets the first elite quarterback of his career. He has finished top-36 in all eight of his seasons, most of them with bad quarterbacks, so the floor is rock solid — but remember the Brady effect above before you draft him as a locked-in WR2. Khalil Shakir has caught 70-plus passes two years running, but Buffalo has never let him out of the slot, and now Moore, Joshua Palmer, and a healthy Kincaid are all fighting for the same targets. He is a flex at best.

TEs

Dalton Kincaid is quietly one of the most talented receiving tight ends in the league — first in target rate and sixth in receiving grade among tight ends over the past two seasons. The problem is a torn PCL he chose to rehab instead of repair, and the coaching staff has openly admitted they do not know his week-to-week availability. His preseason usage has been up, and with Josh Allen throwing to him, he is a top-five tight end when he plays. Draft him a round early only if you also grab a safe backup.

Sept 6 — fading D.J. Moore. The name is better than the situation. Last year was a career low across the board: ten points a game, 1.26 yards per route run, a sixteen percent target share, and seventy-fourth in first downs per route. The structural problem is that Josh Allen only threw 28.75 times a game — Buffalo scores without needing volume, and volume is the whole case for a receiver at this price. Projections have him a full tier below where he is being drafted.

Sept 6 — on the D.J. Moore reunion, one correction. Joe Brady is Buffalo's head coach, not the coordinator. The reunion is real — Brady was Moore's OC in Carolina from 2020 through December 2021, and he has said the 2025 tape showed "the player that I turned on the tape wasn't any different in terms of the way that he moved," and that he wants to get the ball in his hands. But a head coach is not drawing up a receiver's routes week to week. Treat it as a signal about intent, not a projected role — and it does not solve the underlying problem, which is that Josh Allen threw 28.75 times a game and Buffalo scores without needing volume.

PFF ranks this line sixth in football. Left tackle Dion Dawkins and right tackle Spencer Brown are one of the best tackle duos in the league — Dawkins has graded above 75.0 in pass protection in all nine of his NFL seasons, and Brown has become one of the better run blockers at the position. The one soft spot is left guard, where Alec Anderson has just 542 career snaps; they signed veteran Austin Corbett as insurance. Connor McGovern holds down center with O'Cyrus Torrence at right guard.

Buffalo let an aging defense walk — nine players with 200-plus snaps are gone, including Joey Bosa — and went young, spending both second-round picks on defense. PFF ranks them 15th. Stay away early in the season and see if the kids grow up.

QB

Malik Willis won the job. Here is the sneaky part: he scrambles at a higher rate than any quarterback in football, and if you projected his Green Bay rushing numbers over a full season, he would have led every quarterback in rushing. He will not win you weeks with his arm, but the legs give him a real floor. He is a legitimate late-round second quarterback.

RBs

De'Von Achane is the whole offense, and that cuts both ways. He is a safe top-ten back on volume, but Miami's run blocking has ranked among the worst in the league, the offense will struggle to score, and his workload is already historic for a player his size. There is not much room for him to give you more than you are paying for. Jaylen Wright is the clear number two and worth a very late pick — he steps into a top-30 role immediately if Achane goes down.

WRs

Rookie Caleb Douglas (third-round pick) opened the preseason playing 100 percent of the snaps with the starters at the X position, and PFF thinks he has a real chance to lead this team in targets. He costs nothing in drafts and keeps climbing. Malik Washington mans the slot. Nobody else here interests me.

TEs

Greg Dulcich is the tidbit of the whole team. He was third among all tight ends in yards per route run last season, led the entire position on second and third downs, and the new general manager publicly named him as the guy set to make a leap. With every big-name receiver gone and a coordinator who has a history of featuring the tight end, Dulcich is the favorite to lead Miami in targets. He is free in drafts. Touchdowns are the only question because this offense may not score many.

Sept 6. The number that decides De'Von Achane: 29.8 PPR points a game with Tua on the field, 10.5 without him. Malik Willis targets running backs far less. That is a quarterback-dependency problem, not a talent problem, and it is why he is on bust lists despite the ability. On Chris Bell — I was interested and I should not be. He is recovering from an ACL tear suffered at Louisville and sits behind Caleb Douglas on the depth chart, in a receiver room ranked dead last in the league.

PFF ranks them 25th. Center Aaron Brewer has become one of the best in the league, and tackles Patrick Paul and Austin Jackson are passable. The guards are the disaster: Jonah Savaiinaea posted the single lowest grade of any starting lineman in football last season, and rookie Kadyn Proctor starts on the other side.

The secondary was gutted — all five of their top defensive backs by snaps are gone. Hafley will fix it eventually, but not by September. Ranked 27th; avoid.

QB

Drake Maye put up one of the best sophomore quarterback seasons in twenty years — second in total fantasy points, a league-leading 8.9 yards per attempt, and 21.9 points a game against top-eight defenses, so the schedule excuse doesn't apply. Some efficiency regression is coming, and he doesn't run quite enough to be Josh Allen, but with Brown and Romeo Doubs added he is a real QB1 you can build around.

RBs

Rhamondre Stevenson is the value. He grades better than TreVeyon Henderson as a runner, receiver, and pass blocker, he led the backfield in touches down the stretch, and he is going outside the top 30 running backs. TreVeyon Henderson is going a full round or two earlier (early 6th) and that price bets on a role he has not earned — see the McDaniels stat above. He tweaked an ankle in late August too. If Henderson ever fixes his pass protection, both backs become startable; until then, take the cheap one.

WRs

A.J. Brown is the bounce-back bet of the year. His down 2025 looked situational — Philadelphia's run-heavy blowouts left him standing around — and his 12.8-yard average target depth is the deepest of any elite receiver, which is exactly where Maye is at his best. If the decline was real and not situational, you'll be disappointed, but I like the bet. Kayshon Boutte had a big camp and was always better than his stat lines; he is the deep-ball guy and a fine late pick. Romeo Doubs signed a sizable deal to play the Diggs-style Z/slot role and is a safe late flex.

Sept 6. Rhamondre Stevenson won the lead job in camp at roughly sixty to seventy percent of snaps and holds the pass-protection edge, which in this offense keeps him on the field on third down. The problem is everything around him — see the line note below.

Ranked 13th. The splash was signing Alijah Vera-Tucker away from the Jets — when healthy he is one of the best guards in football. Will Campbell, the fourth overall pick in 2025, mans left tackle and needs to show his ugly playoff finish was just the injury he was playing through. Mike Onwenu and veteran Morgan Moses hold the right side with Jared Wilson at center.

They allowed the fourth-fewest points last year but generated almost no sacks, and ten defenders left. Kevin Byard turns 33. Ranked 14th — a matchup play, not a weekly start.

QB

Geno is a real NFL starter who will keep the offense functional. Not a fantasy starter.

RBs

Breece Hall got the franchise tag and the volume is safe, but his receiving role has shrunk three years running and Reich's history says it will not come back. Braelon Allen, all 250 pounds of him, takes the goal-line work, and Glenn has said he wants a three-back rotation with Isaiah Davis mixed in. Hall also strained his groin in camp (he should be fine for Week 1). He is a safe top-20 back whose top-10 path mostly runs through touchdowns he may not get. Allen is the handcuff.

WRs

Garrett Wilson has three straight 1,000-yard seasons with the worst quarterback situation in football, and now he finally gets competence. The flip side is he has never had this much target competition — the Jets added Adonai Mitchell at X, first-round rookie Omar Cooper Jr. (big run-after-catch profile, and a guy I like late), and tight end Kenyon Sadiq. If this offense clicks, Wilson is a top-10 receiver. Adonai Mitchell is a former high pick finally getting a real chance and is worth a late look.

TEs

Kenyon Sadiq is a first-round rookie with wild measurables who missed camp time with an injury. Stash in deeper leagues.

Sept 6. Garrett Wilson commanded a 34.3 percent target share and was targeted on 26.2 percent of his routes, and Frank Reich has called him a bell cow who could see 180 targets. The problem is that four straight years of elite usage have produced zero top-twelve seasons, and the quarterback is now Geno Smith, who turns thirty-six in October and has not posted a passer rating over 100 in three years. There is no growth lever left in the target share; the only path up is efficiency he has never had.

Ranked 21st and climbing. Olu Fashanu and Armand Membou are back-to-back first-round tackles who both turned the corner late last season — a legitimately exciting young duo. The interior is the question: ex-Raider Dylan Parham (dealing with a groin injury), Josh Myers at center, and Joe Tippmann at right guard.

Last year they were the worst fantasy defense in football and traded away their two best players. Then they signed Minkah Fitzpatrick, Demario Davis, T'Vondre Sweat, and Onyemata, and drafted edge rusher David Bailey second overall. The range of outcomes is enormous. Ranked 26th — watch from the waiver wire.

QB

Lamar Jackson is the only quarterback ever to average 25 fantasy points a game in multiple seasons, but his rushing attempts have declined every single year since 2021, down to just 5.2 a game last season. Now add a first-year play caller, more snaps from under center, and an aging supporting cast. He is the boom-or-bust pick of the elite quarterbacks — I would rather have Allen, Maye, or Hurts at a similar price.

RBs

Derrick Henry turned 32 and just lost his three best run blockers — Tyler Linderbaum signed with the Raiders, fullback Patrick Ricard went to the Giants, and blocking tight end Charlie Kolar went to the Chargers. He scored 16 rushing touchdowns for the second year in a row, so the volume and the goal-line work are still his, but he caught only 15 passes and the Bears showed last year what happens to aging backs behind rebuilt lines. A safe pick who has quietly run out of upside.

WRs

Zay Flowers remains the focal point and should out-gain his draft slot, but his size keeps him out of the red-zone conversation and now his own coordinator prefers big receivers — he racks up yards while someone else scores. Rookie Ja'Kobi Lane is the one to watch: he is already third on the depth chart per PFF, and when he played with the starters in the preseason he stayed on the field for every snap. He fits the tall-receiver profile this staff wants and is worth a very late pick. As for the Bateman situation I noted — I could not confirm it anywhere reputable, so I am leaving it off the site.

TEs

Mark Andrews is my favorite Baltimore buy. Isaiah Likely signed with the Giants and Kolar is gone, so the tight end room is his alone, and the new staff has publicly called him a focal point of the offense. He slipped to 24th in points per game last season, his ADP has cratered accordingly, and he has top-five upside at a ninth or tenth round price.

Sept 6. Ja'Kobi Lane is worth knowing about. Jamison Hensley of ESPN said he had never seen a Ravens rookie have a camp quite like it, and Lane scored in the preseason opener. The problem is the queue in front of him — Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman. Red-zone and size appeal to Lamar, nothing more, until somebody ahead of him moves.

PFF ranks them 24th, and the guards are why: Baltimore's guard play graded sixth-worst in football last season, so both spots were overhauled with John Simpson and rookie Olaivavega Ioane, the Penn State guard who did not allow a sack in two seasons. Ronnie Stanley and Roger Rosengarten hold the tackle spots, and Ethan Pocic takes over at center with Daniel Pinter out for the year. The X-factor: they poached offensive line coach Dwayne Ledford from Atlanta, one of the best in the league.

This is the answer to my own question about which defense breaks into the elite tier. Baltimore signed Trey Hendrickson, the best free agent on the market with the fifth-best pass rush grade among all edge rushers over three years. Calais Campbell is back, Madubuike could return, Kyle Hamilton and Roquan Smith anchor the middle, and the schedule is soft. They already scored the eighth-most fantasy points of any defense over the final eight weeks of last season. PFF ranks them fifth. Draft them.

QB

Joe Burrow gets his value entirely from efficiency and volume, with no rushing floor to save a bad week. When he is right, he is a top-five quarterback — he was third in points per game once he got healthy late last season. The catch is he has missed at least six games in three of his six seasons.

RBs

Chase Brown is the best pick in the entire draft according to the research, and I agree. He has finished top-ten among running backs in points per game two years straight. Defenses playing soft to stop Chase and Higgins mean Brown faces light boxes constantly — seventh-most carries against light fronts in the league. He is also third among all backs in first-read targets, so the passing work is real. When Burrow was fully healthy in Weeks 13 through 18, Brown averaged 22.3 points a game, second-best in football, and he did it without a single run over 25 yards. He goes in the middle of the second round and is worth it.

WRs

Ja'Marr Chase posted a career-high 90.1 receiving grade and nobody destroys a good matchup like him. His knee flared up in camp but it is considered day-to-day. Tee Higgins is the one to be careful with — his touchdown totals have come from exactly the kinds of scores that do not repeat, and his current price (about the 15th receiver off the board) is exactly where he finished last year. You are paying his ceiling to get his median.

TEs

Erick All Jr. returns from injury to fill the rotational role. Nothing to draft.

Ranked 20th and trending up. Left guard Dylan Fairchild emerged as a rookie, and right tackle Amarius Mims took a big second-half leap — one bad game after Week 12. Orlando Brown Jr. at left tackle, Ted Karras at center, and Dalton Risner at right guard round it out. Not scary anymore.

Adding Lawrence, Mafe, and Cook may make them respectable, but respectable is not startable. Ranked 22nd.

QB

Unsettled and not fantasy relevant. Moving on.

RBs

Quinshon Judkins is the lead back coming off a dislocated ankle and fractured fibula from Week 16. He is a full participant and on track for Week 1, but his 3.6 yards a carry last season was mostly the line's fault — he had 0.3 yards before contact on some of his runs, nearly the worst blocking any back has gotten in twenty years. Better line, better Judkins. The one I keep eyeing is Dylan Sampson: second among ALL running backs in yards per route run as a rookie (1.86, just behind Bijan), and Jerome Ford left without a replacement. He has real standalone value as a pass catcher and becomes a must-start the moment Judkins misses time.

WRs

Cleveland had the league's worst-graded receiver room, and Jerry Jeudy was the only returning player with more than 25 catches, so they drafted two receivers early. KC Concepcion draws the Zay Flowers role in Monken's offense — quick, lined up everywhere in college, and with this little competition he has a legitimate path to leading the team in targets as a rookie. Denzel Boston (39th overall) starts at the X. Both are late-round picks; Concepcion is the one I want.

TEs

Harold Fannin Jr. finished his rookie year as the focal point of this passing game with a top-five receiving grade among high-volume tight ends. Njoku is gone, the role is his, and his new head coach's offenses shower tight ends with touchdowns. He is a legitimate TE1 that casual leagues still treat like a backup.

Sept 6 — I keep trying to draft Quinshon Judkins and I should stop. The volume is real and so is the talent. The situation is not. Browns backs were last in the NFL in yards before contact at 0.65 and were hit at or behind the line on 49.1 percent of carries. Deshaun Watson was named the Week 1 starter on August 24, so the offense will not be scoring enough to prop up touchdown volume, and the AFC North is the worst division in football to try to run in. That is volume attached to nothing.

Sept 6. KC Concepcion is a volume-by-vacuum dart throw and I should be honest about that. Cleveland's receiver room grades 30th in the league and he and Denzel Boston are the unproven top options. A path to WR1 exists purely by default, attached to the quarterback situation described above. That is a last-two-rounds flier, not a plan.

Ranked 31st for now, but four of the five starters are new: rookie left tackle Spencer Fano, left guard Zion Johnson, center Elgton Jenkins (the best of the group, seven straight seasons grading above 67 in pass protection), right guard Teven Jenkins, and right tackle Tytus Howard. Rookie growing pains are coming, but this is a completely different unit than the one that buried Judkins and Sampson last year.

They traded Myles Garrett to the Rams. Jared Verse came back in the deal and is a nice player, but this defense drops from a top-eight fantasy unit to a streamer. Ranked 18th.

QB

Aaron Rodgers has averaged under 16 fantasy points a game two years running. Not on my roster.

RBs

This is a true committee and the beat reporting says it splits by down. Rico Dowdle signed after his breakout stretch in Carolina and reunites with McCarthy, who coached him for five years in Dallas — familiarity usually wins these battles, and camp reports have him running with the ones. Jaylen Warren grades better, especially as a receiver, and takes the passing downs. Both are flex options around the eighth to tenth round; neither is a weekly lock. Pick whichever one your league lets you have cheaper.

WRs

DK Metcalf is the top target, but a big jump is unlikely with Rodgers' arm and new competition. Michael Pittman Jr. arrived in a trade from the Colts, where he commanded twenty percent of the targets, and his underneath possession style is exactly what McCarthy has historically fed — the sneaky-relevant piece here. Rookie Germie Bernard is pushing for the number-two job in camp, which is worth monitoring.

Ranked 14th. Center Zach Frazier is on the cusp of stardom — eleven pressures allowed on 673 pass-blocking snaps. Troy Fautanu moves to LT and Mason McCormick LG both flip from the right side to the left, Spencer Anderson and Dylan Cook man the right. Camp reports have also praised Max Iheanachor, but he missed 2 preseason games and had mixed results in the 3rd. 

Ranked seventh — they generate big plays in bunches (top-three in fumble recoveries and defensive touchdowns last year), and the rebuilt secondary added Jamel Dean and Jaquan Brisker. The age of Watt, Heyward, and Ramsey is the long-term worry, but this is a fine defense to draft if you miss the top tier.

QB

C.J. Stroud has seen his grade decline three straight seasons, and the common thread is pressure: he is excellent from a clean pocket and ordinary when the rush gets home, and no quarterback has been rushed more. The line got reworked but still has questions, and with this defense and run game there is no reason for Houston to throw forty times. He is a streamer in redraft even though the long-term picture is brighter.

RBs

David Montgomery came over in a trade from Detroit, where the only thing holding him back was sharing a locker room with Gibbs. Houston revised his contract, the backfield competition is minimal, and he is one of the best in football at creating yards through contact — which matters behind a line that ranked 21st in run blocking. He is 29, which I flagged, but at his price in the sixth or seventh round he is one of the better values on the board. Woody Marks handles passing downs and is the obvious handcuff.

WRs

Nico Collins owns a 92.7 receiving grade over three years, tied for second-best among all receivers. Jayden Higgins tearing his ACL (out for the year) locks in a huge target share for Collins — but know what you are buying: he has missed at least two games in every one of his five seasons. Tank Dell did not practice until August 9 coming off his devastating knee injury and his timeline is genuinely uncertain; if he returns to form he changes this offense, but I cannot draft that hope before the tenth round. Jaylin Noel takes the slot.

TEs

Nothing draftable.

Sept 6. Kayshon Boutte was traded from New England to Houston on August 24, for a safety and a pick, specifically to complement Nico Collins after Jayden Higgins got hurt. That is a defined role rather than a hope, which makes him the most interesting name in the late-receiver tier.

Ranked 27th but with reasons for hope. Rookie left tackle Aireontae Ersery had promising moments last year, and the veterans arrived: Wyatt Teller at left guard and Braden Smith — the good run blocker they pried from the Colts, exactly as I noted — at right tackle. Rookie center Keylan Rutledge has been playing really well in camp, and Ed Ingram rounds out the interior. If Rutledge holds up, this climbs into the top twenty.

Ranked second in fantasy and they return essentially everyone, plus safety Reed Blankenship from the Eagles — my note about the secondary with Stingley and Lassiter stands. Some of last year's touchdown luck will fade, but the floor is the best in football. Keep starting them.

QB

Daniel Jones re-signed for two years and $88 million and looked excellent before rupturing his Achilles. He is expected back for Week 1, but his five rushing touchdowns from last season are not coming back on that leg, and the Colts traded away Michael Pittman and lost right tackle Braden Smith. He is a second quarterback in Superflex, nothing more.

RBs

Jonathan Taylor is exactly the risky first-rounder I described in my notes. Through twelve weeks last season he averaged 25.7 points a game — the best back in fantasy — and then faded to 13.3 down the stretch as the boom-or-bust running style cooled. The Colts once again refused to invest behind him, so the workload is enormous, but his touchdown environment depends on Jones staying upright, and I already noted the scary right side of the line. He belongs in the first round; just know you are drafting volume, not certainty.

WRs

Josh Downs is my favorite Colt this year. He has quietly graded as a top-thirty receiver per route for three seasons while stuck playing barely 58 percent of snaps. Pittman's trade bumps him to second on the depth chart, and the general manager publicly endorsed a bigger role. The Keenan Allen signing caps it slightly, but Allen is 34 and played about half the snaps last year — the plan looks like Downs everywhere, Allen only in three-receiver sets. Ninth round price for a player with 70-catch upside. Alec Pierce signed a $116 million extension and then spent camp on the PUP list; his 20-yard target depth makes him the definition of boom-or-bust — my "hold and wait" plan is right. Keenan Allen — my "No" stands.

TEs

Tyler Warren led all tight ends in receiving yards through seven weeks as a rookie before the offense collapsed around him. With Pittman gone, the short targets they shared funnel his way. His groin issue is minor and he is expected for Week 1. He is my kind of tight end pick: fifth or sixth at the position with a real case to finish top three.

Sept 6. Tyler Warren is the tight end I want if I miss the top two. Michael Pittman was traded to Pittsburgh, which vacates the target tree he was already sharing, and Warren went 76/817/4 as a rookie. Alec Pierce is back — ankle and heel surgery in March, all of camp on PUP, activated the Thursday before Week 1. He is on four years and $114 million and averaged 21.3 yards a catch, but Keenan Allen was added and Pierce has zero camp reps. Expect a ramp, not a Week 1 explosion.

Ranked fourth in football, which surprised me given my worry about the right side. Quenton Nelson just had his best season since 2020, Bernhard Raimann makes the left side elite, Tanor Bortolini leapt forward at center, and Matt Goncalves held his own at right guard. The one new face is right tackle Jalen Travis, who earned a 72.2 grade in four starts as a rookie — the Braden Smith loss hurts less than I feared.

Nineteen players from last year's defense are gone, and the rookies start. The reason for hope is a full season of Sauce Gardner, and my note on rookie safety AJ Haulcy being an interception machine holds. Ranked 21st — waiver wire.

QB

Trevor Lawrence finished sixth among quarterbacks in points per game under Coen with career-high rushing production, and PFF lists him as a must-draft because he still goes outside the top ten at the position. That is the definition of value.

RBs

The three-man mess I predicted. Bhayshul Tuten goes in the sixth round and that price scares me — his rookie efficiency was genuinely good (top-ten in yards after contact, first-down rate, and missed tackles), but Chris Rodriguez and LeQuint Allen split this backfield three ways and Jacksonville might be a pass-first team. Chris Rodriguez played under Coen at Kentucky, returned from injury Monday with the highlight run of practice, and his size makes him the goal-line bet — he is a twelfth-round pick I like more than Tuten at his sixth-round price. LeQuint Allen owns the passing downs.

WRs

Parker Washington — my triple-star from the spring — is now on PFF's must-draft list at his seventh-round price. Every time injuries have opened the slot for him he has taken the job and kept it, and he closed last season with an 85.1 receiving grade over the final stretch, top-ten among all receivers. He will be maddening week to week in a balanced offense, but the eighth-round upside is enormous. Brian Thomas Jr. is the bounce-back: the scheme needs one outside receiver to win deep and that has to be him. The camp chemistry reports with Lawrence are everywhere, and his touchdown luck should turn. Jakobi Meyers in the tenth is the trap — Hunter returning, Washington rising, and more two-tight-end sets all squeeze him. Travis Hunter is playing cornerback primarily, as I noted.

TEs

Brenton Strange averaged 11.1 points a game over a seven-game stretch last year, twelfth among tight ends, and the rookie they drafted (Boerkircher) is a blocker who frees Strange to run routes. He goes as a backup tight end and can finish as a starter.

Sept 6. The backfield is genuinely undecided. Jacksonville's own depth chart lists Bhayshul Tuten and Chris Rodriguez Jr. as co-starters with no separation, and Liam Coen said on August 14 it is "going to have to be a little bit more by committee." The tidbit worth having: Coen coached Rodriguez at Kentucky in 2021 and calls him "one of those glass eaters," and Rodriguez is on two years and ten million, which is not camp-body money. He also missed OTAs and the first three days of camp with a foot problem, and PFF's Nathan Jahnke wrote that his return reopened a competition that had been drifting Tuten's way. With LeQuint Allen unlikely for Week 1, third downs go to Rodriguez early. Given the line and the schedule I would rather have the cheap one than the expensive one.

Sept 6 — the Jacksonville receiver order is not what the names suggest. Parker Washington is the actual WR1. He finished 2025 on a tear with ten or more targets in three of the last four games and is now Lawrence's top target. Brian Thomas Jr. has been demoted in role, not in talent — he struggled on intermediate routes and now works mostly as a perimeter deep threat, with Washington and Jakobi Meyers inside. Buy the talent if he is cheap, but he cannot be counted on as a starter.

Ranked 30th, and the interior is the problem: Patrick Mekari has declined two straight years and is hurt, Robert Hainsey's best season was 2022, and Ezra Cleveland is average. Walker Little and Anton Harrison (moved to left tackle, as I noted — actually Harrison mans right with Little on the left) hold the edges. It ranks higher when Cole Van Lanen returns.

They finished third in fantasy last year but that was built on touchdowns and 22 interceptions, and they lost Devin Lloyd to Carolina. Ranked 19th — stream them in good matchups only.

QB

Cam Ward finished his rookie season on a real heater — multiple touchdown passes in each of his final four full games with his best grades of the year. With Carnell Tate, a healthy Ridley, Wan'Dale, and Daboll calling it, he is the classic early-season waiver quarterback. Draft him only in Superflex.

RBs

The preseason told the story here: Tyjae Spears out-snapped Tony Pollard with the starters in BOTH games, and they used the two interchangeably rather than by down — a clear new-staff signal. Pollard in the eighth round is still fine value because the touchdown math is absurd: he has 500-plus carries over two years with only ten rushing touchdowns while every comparable back has at least twenty. Some of those scores are coming back. But Spears in the fourteenth round is the interesting side of the bet, because Daboll rides the hot hand. Nicholas Singleton, the fifth-round rookie, is a name for deep leagues.

WRs

Carnell Tate went fourth overall — a shock on draft night, but the opportunity is undeniable. He plays the Z, projects to lead the team in targets, and recent top-ten receiver picks (Chase, Nabers, Waddle, Wilson) all produced immediately. He is the first rookie receiver being drafted and the one I would actually take. Calvin Ridley returns healthy at the X. Elic Ayomanor was the star of camp in my notes, but the depth chart says he opens as a backup behind Tate, Ridley, and Wan'Dale — keep him on the watch list rather than the roster. Wan'Dale Robinson followed Daboll on a big contract, but with this much competition he shrinks back to a slot-only role; the eleventh-round price pays for last year's stats.

TEs

Nothing here — and a correction to my notes: Chig Okonkwo signed with Washington, not Tennessee.

Ranked 29th. Peter Skoronski is one of the best guards in football and JC Latham keeps improving at right tackle, exactly as I wrote in the spring. The problem is the other three spots: Dan Moore Jr. at left tackle, Cordell Volson at left guard, and Austin Schlottmann at center have one decent season among them.

New scheme, gutted roster, first-round pass rusher. It will take a year. Ranked 28th.

QB

Bo Nix has finished top-ten in fantasy twice, but his production has always outrun his actual play — propped up by huge passing volume, great protection, and his legs. Now the backfield is healthy, the defense creates easy game scripts, and an ankle issue limits the running. Trading for Waddle makes Nix better in real life and probably worse in fantasy. Treat him as half of a quarterback platoon.

RBs

Here is the full answer to my Denver committee question, from the beat writers. J.K. Dobbins returns from his foot injury atop the depth chart, but on a managed workload — the plan floating around camp is roughly eleven carries a game to keep him alive for January. Jonah Coleman, the thick 5-foot-8 rookie, is the camp riser: the Denver Post's Parker Gabriel wrote that Coleman "has consistently produced between the tackles at a higher level than any back on the Broncos roster not named J.K. Dobbins," and Payton himself compared their running styles. RJ Harvey scored twelve times last year but averaged under four yards a carry, and his receiving chops point him toward the passing-down role. So: a genuine three-way split on a team that wins ugly. Dobbins is a flex, Harvey is a dart throw, and Coleman in the last rounds is the cheap ticket if the camp reports are right — but nobody here is startable with confidence until the split declares itself.

WRs

Jaylen Waddle cost Denver a first-round pick and should lead the team in targets, but Payton has historically underused smaller receivers and this team does not chase points. High floor, capped ceiling — a WR3 you will never feel great about starting. Courtland Sutton is the one to avoid at his seventh-round price: Waddle takes targets, rookie Pat Bryant (they love him, as I noted) is pushing at the X, Payton rotates receivers, and Sutton turns 31 — he is touchdown-or-bust now.

Number one in football, and it is not close. All five starters return from PFF's top-ranked unit: Garett Bolles posted the highest pass-blocking grade of any tackle (91.0) without allowing a single sack in 802 snaps, Quinn Meinerz was the highest-graded guard in the league, and Ben Powers, Luke Wattenberg, and Mike McGlinchey round out a group with no weak link.

A league-leading 68 sacks last season with the third-fewest points allowed, and the unit returns nearly intact. The sack total will regress some, but this is a top-four fantasy defense again. Keep them in the rotation with my other studied defenses.

QB

Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL and LCL. He is expected back for Week 1, but last season's fantasy bounce-back was driven almost entirely by a career rushing spike, and that is exactly what a rebuilt knee takes away. His passing has quietly declined for several years. PFF ranks him fifteenth at the position — the name will cost you more than the player returns.

RBs

Kenneth Walker III is the Chief to own. His 93.2 grade over three seasons is second among all running backs, and Seattle's committee was the only thing keeping him from stardom — Charbonnet took his goal-line work and passing downs. In Kansas City, Pacheco is gone to Detroit and Kareem Hunt is unsigned, so the path is clean, and this team has always thrown to its backs. A top-five finish is genuinely on the table, and he goes in the second round. The foot issue on the injury report is considered minor.

WRs

Rashee Rice in the third round is the receiver I am avoiding hardest. The scheme fit just changed underneath him, he had another knee procedure in the spring, he served his jail time this offseason and lost the reps, and he has ended two straight seasons on injured reserve. Xavier Worthy is the other side of the coin: the shoulder he wrecked in Week 1 last year explains the whole down season, the Chiefs cleared out Hollywood Brown and JuJu without replacing them, and Bieniemy's offenses are built around exactly one thing — a field-stretching burner, which is Worthy's whole identity. The catch: he re-sprained the same shoulder in camp and missed most of it. At his eleventh-round price I will take that gamble. And my Cyrus Allen note aged beautifully: the fifth-round rookie was called the early star of camp by multiple outlets, built real chemistry with Mahomes while Rice was away, and is pushing for slot snaps. Last-round pick, real path.

TEs

Travis Kelce at 37 still finished ninth in points per game because nobody replaced the departed targets. Set-and-forget volume, no ceiling.

Ranked eighth. Creed Humphrey is the best center in football, Trey Smith is elite at right guard, and Josh Simmons looked good at left tackle as a rookie. The right tackle spot is the weakness — journeyman Jaylon Moore holds it for now, exactly the hole I flagged in the spring. Kingsley Suamataia improved after kicking inside to left guard.

They allowed few points but made almost no big plays — a league-low six forced fumbles — and then lost three good defensive backs. Streamer. Ranked eleventh.

QB

Cousins as a bridge to Mendoza. Neither is draftable in a normal league, and Mendoza brings little rushing, so even the rookie's eventual takeover is more real-football interesting than fantasy interesting.

RBs

Ashton Jeanty — my triple-star — remains the bet on talent over situation. As a rookie he forced 61 missed tackles, fifth-most in football, behind one of the worst lines in the league, and his rushing grade on carries with any daylight at all was fourth-best. The line is meaningfully better with Linderbaum and a healthy Kolton Miller, and the scheme is a simple one-cut system he is perfect for. Two warnings: he sprained an ankle on August 23 and his Week 1 status is genuinely unclear, and rookie Mike Washington Jr. — 6-foot-2, 228 pounds, exactly as I described him — profiles as the goal-line back in a Kubiak two-back system. Washington is a top-24 running back for as long as Jeanty is out and a must-handcuff either way.

WRs

The research says the first Raiders receiver drafted should be Jalen Nailor, not Tre Tucker. Nailor out-graded Jordan Addison in Minnesota last season, and his short-and-intermediate game outside the numbers is precisely where both Cousins and Mendoza are at their best. He goes in the twentieth round — literally free. Tre Tucker has the earlier ADP but the worse profile; my "they have to throw to someone" note applies, but Nailor is the someone. Jack Bech and Dont'e Thornton (hamstring) fight for the third job.

TEs

Brock Bowers averaged more than 14.5 points a game in back-to-back seasons behind the third-worst passing offense in football over that span — nobody else on that production list did it with a bottom-twelve passing game. Everything about this offseason (real quarterback, real scheme, real center) points up. He and McBride are the top tier, and Bowers may be the safer half of it.

Sept 6 — Bowers, and why I keep going back and forth. FantasyPros ran him as a bust and a league-winner in the same week, off identical facts: bad team, thin receiving corps, new staff. One side prices that as risk at a first-round cost, the other as target concentration. The tell is that the league-winner case leans on his rookie line (112 catches, 1,194 yards) rather than his injury-shortened 2025 (64/680/7, 15.2 a game). His knee is fine — full participant all camp. What bothers me is the environment: Vegas win total 5.5 with the Under favoured, implied team total 19.2, an offense that finished 32nd in points, Cousins starting and rookie Fernando Mendoza waiting. To take him at this price I need elite, and elite is hard on a nineteen-point offense.
Ashton Jeanty — skip him at cost. He has not taken a team-drill rep since an ankle sprain on August 23 and Rapoport says he may miss Week 1. The role is genuinely bell-cow by design, but not at a second-round price on this offense.

Ranked eighteenth and ascending. Kolton Miller was headed for a career year before his injury and returns at left tackle, Tyler Linderbaum's run blocking (three seasons above 80) transforms the ground game, Jackson Powers-Johnson and ex-49er Spencer Burford — the Kubiak addition I noted — hold the guard spots, and DJ Glaze starts at right tackle.

They spent big on the front seven (Nakobe Dean, Quay Walker, Kwity Paye) but none of the additions are difference-makers. Ranked 31st. No.

QB

Justin Herbert in the seventh round is the quarterback value of the draft. He ran for 498 yards last season, second-most at the position, his line gets Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt back with three new interior starters, and McDaniel's scheme has made every quarterback he touched more efficient. PFF has him seventh at the position with overall-QB1 upside. The one recurring curse: his skill players keep getting hurt underneath him.

RBs

Omarion Hampton has league-winning upside behind the rebuilt line — his rookie flashes were real before the ankle fracture — but the room is genuinely crowded, and here is the tidbit everyone will miss: McDaniel personally recruited Keaton Mitchell to Los Angeles. Mitchell is a physical clone of De'Von Achane, the back McDaniel just built an offense around — same size, same sub-4.4 speed — and he owns the highest grade of the three backs over the past three seasons. If McDaniel plays favorites, Mitchell in the sixteenth round could be one of the steals of the year. Kimani Vidal also earned real trust last season. Draft Hampton knowing the shape of this, and always grab Mitchell late.

WRs

Ladd McConkey is set up for a career year. His game lives on intermediate routes — a 90-plus grade on throws ten to nineteen yards downfield in both his seasons — and that is exactly the range McDaniel's offenses feature: his Miami number-one receivers got at least 42 intermediate targets every single year. Last season's dip was deep balls and injuries, both fixable. Quentin Johnston stays a touchdown-dependent flex, though the scheme suits his speed. Tre Harris develops behind them.

TEs

The depth chart says Charlie Kolar is the starter — he played with the first unit in both light and heavy packages while the more-hyped Oronde Gadsden II worked with backups. Kolar is a sneaky deep-league tight end; temper the Gadsden excitement until the snaps say otherwise.

Sept 6. The thing that changed for Ladd McConkey is the coordinator: Mike McDaniel is the new OC, and his quick-game system built on a 2.4-second time to throw is close to purpose-built for this receiver. McDaniel said in July it is "reasonable to expect" career highs from that room, and the Chargers were fourth in red-zone pass rate last year. The bear case is that the same quick game caps his air yards and touchdowns, he already had one down year, and Tre' Harris and Quentin Johnston are real competition for targets.

Sept 6. Quentin Johnston is a genuine arrow-up name. He finished WR34 overall but WR22 on a per-game basis, and he is being drafted around WR47. Mike McDaniel is now the head coach and the new coordinator compared his physical traits to Julio Jones and Andre Johnson. That is a lot of value for a late pick, and it is the cheaper way into this passing game than paying up for McConkey.

Ranked seventh with the biggest range in football. Rashawn Slater (back from injury, survived an August scare) and Joe Alt are a top tackle pairing when both play. The new interior — Jake Slaughter, Tyler Biadasz, and Cole Strange — is unproven, and the whole ranking rides on tackle health.

Quietly a smart pick: ten of eleven starters return, and they had zero defensive touchdowns and a league-low fumble-recovery total last season — the kind of bad luck that reverses. Ranked eighth. A fine second defense or early streamer.

QB

Dak Prescott finished eighth in points per game and everything around him returns. He always scores well, exactly as my notes said — the only caveat is that a better defense means fewer desperate fourth quarters.

RBs

Javonte Williams answered my volume question emphatically: he played at least 70 percent of the snaps in eleven of sixteen games and was the twelfth-best back in fantasy through Week 14 before a shoulder injury slowed his finish. He is not explosive, but the role is completely safe and nobody was added to threaten it. A boring, bankable RB2 in the fourth or fifth round. Jaydon Blue — my breakout question from the spring — is answered too: he is fighting Malik Davis and Phil Mafah just to be the backup. Schottenheimer raves about his growth ("night and day"), which makes him the handcuff to own, but only the handcuff.

WRs

CeeDee Lamb caught everything for ten straight weeks last year and still finished only tenth in points per game because he scored three touchdowns against a career average of seven. That is not decline, that is bad luck — positive touchdown regression alone pushes him back to the top five. George Pickens — my contract-year star — finished fifth in total points and his five long touchdowns will not all repeat, but the offense, the role, and the motivation are all intact. Both are draftable at price. Ryan Flournoy is the name to file away: he graded 80.3 last season, is locked in as the third receiver, and if Lamb or Pickens ever misses time he instantly becomes the top waiver claim in every league.

TEs

Jake Ferguson made my notes as a serviceable top-ten option, and the numbers agree with an asterisk: he was the best tight end in fantasy for six weeks while Lamb was hurt and a non-factor once everyone got healthy. His actual receiving grade ranked near the bottom of full-time tight ends. He is a volume-dependent low-end starter.

Sept 6 — the shootout play, and Dallas is still the model. This is the situation I hunt for: a defense bad enough that the offense has to throw all game. Fifteen of Dallas's seventeen games carry an over/under of 48 or higher, the most in the NFL, with an implied team total around 25.4 to 25.75. That is the environment that made this passing game a fantasy machine last year and there is no reason it changes. Everything in this offense gets a bump from it.

Sept 6 — I have been sleeping on Javonte Williams. 2025: 252 carries, 1,201 yards, 4.8 a carry, 11 rushing touchdowns, 47 catches — 299 total touches. Dallas then gave him three years and $24 million, released Jaydon Blue, Mafah and Abanikanda, and drafted nobody. That is the cleanest role of any back in his draft range and "boring to watch" is exactly why he is cheap. The honest caveat: those 47 catches went for only 137 yards, so the receiving work is screens. Volume value, not efficiency.

Ranked seventeenth with the best interior in football and the shakiest edges. Tyler Smith has graded above 70 all four years at left guard, rookie Tyler Booker led all first-year guards, and Cooper Beebe is solid at center. The problem is the one I flagged: Tyler Guyton improved at left tackle but remains below average, and Terence Steele is just a guy on the right.

The rebuild was aggressive — Caleb Downs at pick eleven, edge Malachi Lawrence at twenty-three, a full season of Quinnen Williams (a 90-plus player), plus Rashan Gary, Dee Winters, Cobie Durant, and Jalen Thompson. They were the second-worst defense in football last year, so "way better" still probably means average — but average with this many playmakers is worth a late look in deeper leagues. Ranked 23rd with an arrow up.

QB

Jaxson Dart is the quiet quarterback value nobody is talking about. He averaged 20.5 points per start as a rookie — seventh-best at the position — on the strength of 86 carries and nine rushing touchdowns. Now Nabers returns, they added Darnell Mooney, Calvin Austin, and Isaiah Likely, and spent the tenth pick on an offensive lineman. The flags are the concussions: he missed two games and multiple evaluations last season, and a running quarterback with a concussion history is a real risk. But at his price he is a top-twelve pick at the position.

RBs

The committee I feared, now with one more mouth. Cam Skattebo averaged over nineteen points a game in his four starts before the gruesome ankle injury, but the preseason showed the new reality: he played five of sixteen snaps with the starters while Tracy and Singletary rotated through, and then the Giants signed Najee Harris — who is precisely the kind of big back Harbaugh has fed for a decade in Baltimore. Skattebo is still the favorite for the most carries, but at his fourth-round price you are paying workhorse money for a committee job. My preseason notes on Tyrone Tracy (the whiffed block, the fumble) match the film reports — he holds the passing-down role anyway. Najee late is the goal-line and insurance play with a real path if Skattebo's recovery stalls.

WRs

Malik Nabers commanded nearly 30 percent of targets when healthy — the best rate in football. The knee is the whole question: he is practicing but limited, the team signed Odell, JuJu, and Berrios in a single day (which tells you they were nervous), and receivers coming off ACL tears usually need a runway. At a discount he is worth it; at his healthy price he is not. My Odell note: he is here, and it would be something, but plan for a decoy. Rookie Malachi Fields is already top-three on the depth chart and stays on the field in two-receiver sets, exactly as I wrote — deep-league dart.

TEs

Isaiah Likely followed Harbaugh from Baltimore on starter money, and Dart already throws to tight ends more than any Giants quarterback in years. If Nabers opens slowly, Likely could genuinely lead this team in targets. He is my favorite late-round tight end plan.

Sept 6 — the Skattebo numbers, since I keep arguing for him on feel. The feel is backed up. At Arizona State in 2024 he forced 103 missed tackles on runs with 4.09 yards after contact per attempt, and 120 forced misses counting receptions — second in that draft class behind only Ashton Jeanty. As a rookie, in eight games before the ankle, he put up 3.0 yards after contact per carry, twenty-two forced misses rushing and seven receiving, and here is the part that matters for our format: his 82.7 receiving grade ranked sixth among all NFL running backs, higher than his rushing grade. He caught twenty-four of thirty targets. Also worth knowing: Najee Harris is not back to one hundred percent from the Achilles, per Harbaugh, so that committee threat is smaller than the depth chart suggests. The real risk is not Najee and it is not durability of style — it is that this whole backfield is a bet on Andrew Thomas staying healthy.

Ranked 23rd. Andrew Thomas was arguably their best player last season (90.3 grade) but cannot stay healthy. First-round rookie Francis Mauigoa starts at right guard, with Jon Runyan, John Michael Schmitz, and Jermaine Eluemunor filling out a group that is a year away.

Sept 6 update. RotoWire has this twelfth, PFF twenty-third, and the gap between them is entirely Andrew Thomas. With Thomas on the field the Giants ranked twelfth in rushing success rate and had the second-lowest stuffed-run rate in the league; without him the whole thing collapses. So any Giants back you draft is, underneath, a bet on Thomas staying healthy. Price it that way.

They traded Dexter Lawrence for a first-round pick and are starting over. Ranked 29th. No.

QB

Jalen Hurts has finished top-eight five straight seasons, matched only by Josh Allen, and Mannion has said the quarterback run game stays central. The Tush Push touchdowns and the rushing floor make him nearly matchup-proof even if the passing efficiency wobbles while everyone learns the offense.

RBs

Saquon Barkley at 29 behind the second-ranked line is still a first-round pick, but the fine print matters: Tank Bigsby actually out-produced him per touch last season, and the team has talked about spelling him more. If the touches dip even ten percent, the first-round price stops working. Bigsby is the handcuff with a catch — he has eleven career receptions, so if Saquon went down the passing work would go to Will Shipley, splitting the inheritance.

WRs

DeVonta Smith is the clear winner of the Brown trade. He posted an 89.9 grade out wide last season — tied for third-best in football — and every receiver Philadelphia added (first-round rookie Makai Lemon, Hollywood Brown, Dontayvion Wicks) is a slot type. Smith gets the X to himself with a career-high target share coming; top-ten upside at a WR2 price. Makai Lemon was the guy defenses keyed on in camp per my notes, and he will start in the slot immediately — but the Eagles have run one of the lightest slot-target offenses in football for years, so temper the rookie hype to a WR4 with growth potential.

TEs

Dallas Goedert's role plus more two-tight-end looks keeps this relevant, but nobody here is a priority draft pick.

Ranked second in football with all five starters back: Jordan Mailata, Landon Dickerson, Cam Jurgens, Tyler Steen, and the great Lane Johnson, who has allowed seven pressures in a season's worth of snaps and says this is his farewell tour. The only loss is legendary line coach Jeff Stoutland, which is worth watching.

Fifth in points allowed, restocked with Jonathan Greenard and Riq Woolen. The safest floor of any defense outside the top tier. Ranked sixth.

QB

Jayden Daniels still has overall-QB1 rushing upside — nobody else touches his 148-carry, 891-yard rookie season — but he played exactly one fully healthy game last year (knee, hamstring, elbow), and now the protection is the league's worst. He is the highest-variance early quarterback pick on the board: draft the ceiling only if your roster can absorb the floor.

RBs

A five-man pile with no workhorse. Jacory Croskey-Merritt flashed late last season, but my notes nailed the problem — he catches nothing, and Kaytron Allen threatens both his goal-line work and possibly his roster spot. Rachaad White has the safest job: the Austin Ekeler third-down role, which historically produces a safe but unspectacular RB3. Jerome Ford and Jeremy McNichols fill it out. My Robert Henry Jr. sleeper note — I could not find him anywhere on current depth reports, so consider that one dead for now. Nobody here above a flex price.

WRs

Terry McLaurin broke out to WR7 with a healthy Daniels in 2024 and collapsed with him in 2025. He is the clear top target and the Tunsil injury cuts his deep-ball time — exactly the concern in my notes. WR2 if the offense recovers, WR3 if it doesn't. Stefon Diggs signed during camp at 33 and slots in as the number two; the roles fit (McLaurin outside, Diggs inside), but the target math in a broken offense only feeds one mouth. My Antonio Williams camp note stays unverified — watch list only.

TEs

Chig Okonkwo — the correction from my notes: he signed HERE, not with Tennessee, and my instinct about him was right. He steps into Zach Ertz's vacated role, which produced a top-ten tight end season as recently as 2024, and with so little receiver depth he is a safe bet for the second-most targets on the team. His career-long problem is a near-total absence of goal-line work. Low-end TE1 upside at a free price.

Sept 6. Terry McLaurin held a 23.3 percent target share even through a wrecked season, with 2.29 yards per route run and top-five efficiency on first downs per route, so there is no decline signal in the underlying numbers. What I have to weigh against it: he is thirty, he missed seven games last year for the first time in his career, and Washington added Stefon Diggs, which cuts against the idea that his share is safe. Jayden Daniels's own durability is the larger risk to the whole passing game.

Sept 6 — the McLaurin tackle question, and I had the name wrong. Trent Williams is in San Francisco. Washington's left tackle is Laremy Tunsil, and he tore his triceps in camp, had surgery on August 10, and will miss most of the season. That is a real, confirmed downgrade — Daniels already takes significant hits both in the pocket and scrambling, and the line drops a long way without Tunsil. Replacements are Brandon Coleman or Josh Conerly Jr.
The rest of the McLaurin case checks out: he was genuinely WR6 in 2024 with career bests in catch rate and 13 touchdowns, and the 2026 camp reports are real — Zach Selby has him "looking like his normal self," Quinn calls the offseason remarkable, new coordinator David Blough says "he sets the tone for the group." Diggs matters less than feared; the reporting says he and Okonkwo are unlikely to meaningfully cut McLaurin's share. The problem is the rest: he is 31, the 2024 finish was touchdown-inflated, he played ten games last year on a quad, and now the tackle is gone and the coordinator is new.

Ranked 32nd. Brandon Coleman slides from guard to left tackle to replace Tunsil — a downgrade at two spots at once — with Chris Paul, Nick Allegretti (already banged up in camp, as I noted), Sam Cosmi, and second-year Josh Conerly Jr. across the rest. Pressure everywhere, all season.

Most yards allowed in football last year, and the fixes are rookies. Ranked 30th. No.

QB

Caleb Williams jumped to 19 points a game in Johnson's first year on volume, a 27-to-9 touchdown ratio, and nearly 400 rushing yards — even though his accuracy ranked second-worst among starters. Year two in the same system is historically when Johnson's quarterbacks leap. He is a back-end QB1 with room for more.

RBs

D'Andre Swift is about as safe as a fourth-or-fifth-round back gets. He graded clearly better than Kyle Monangai as a runner, receiver, and blocker, and Monangai hyperextended his knee in camp and may miss Week 1 — so Swift could open the season with the backfield to himself. The line change at center is the only real worry.

WRs

Luther Burden III in the fifth round is one of the best picks in the draft, full stop. As a rookie he ranked third among ALL receivers in yards per route run — behind only Puka and Smith-Njigba — while never getting a full-time role. Chicago traded Moore and let Zaccheaus walk specifically to clear his path. And the stat of the summer: from two-tight-end sets, Burden averaged 6.51 yards per route run, the best mark by any receiver in any personnel grouping in football — and the Bears just drafted another tight end. His groin injury ends with the preseason; he is expected for Week 1. Rome Odunze says the foot that wrecked his second half is finally right, and he scored five times in the first month last year before it flared. He is the cheaper Bear with top-15 weeks in him.

TEs

Colston Loveland closed his rookie year with four 90-yard games counting the playoffs — no other tight end had more than three all season. With Moore gone, he and Burden are the offense. He is the third tight end off the board and has a real case to finish first.

Sept 6. D'Andre Swift is the one I was underrating. Best line in his ADP tier, a run game that went from twenty-fifth to third, Kyle Monangai week-to-week with a hyperextended knee (Ben Johnson's own words, September 5), and the softest early schedule of anyone in that range. Ben Johnson also wants him more involved as a receiver. On the receivers, both of the young ones come with an asterisk: Luther Burden III lost about a month to a late-August groin injury and had games with negative receiving yards last year, and Rome Odunze is coming off a foot fracture and has described a "new normal" when he plants. With D.J. Moore gone this is a genuine three-way target tree, which caps all of them.

Ranked fifth even after the retirement. Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson, and veteran Garrett Bradbury (stepping in for Dalman) form a strong interior, Darnell Wright just got paid at right tackle, and Braxton Jones opens at left tackle with talented second-year man Ozzy Trapilo possibly returning from injury mid-season.

A league-leading 23 interceptions last year will regress, and the back seven turned over. First-round safety Dillon Thieneman and the health of Jaylon Johnson decide whether this is decent or shaky. Ranked twelfth — matchup play.

QB

Jared Goff has led the NFL in passing yards over four years combined and is very good when protected — my note precisely — but he gives you nothing with his legs, and the new center situation (below) threatens the "when protected" part. Streamer with a high floor in dome games.

RBs

Jahmyr Gibbs is PFF's number one overall pick in fantasy, and the case is simple: he is the only back to average 21-plus points per game in each of the last two seasons, and David Montgomery — the man who capped his goal-line work for three years — now plays in Houston. The push-back is the line: run blocking slipped from second to thirteenth last year, two more starters changed, and the new center is hurt. Gibbs is talented enough to win anyway. Isiah Pacheco (yes, he is a Lion now, as my notes said) is the backup, but he sprained his MCL and Sione Vaki is pushing to take the job outright.

WRs

Amon-Ra St. Brown has finished fourth, fifth, and fourth in points per game the last three years with grades between 90 and 91.3 every season. He is the single safest receiver pick in fantasy. The Petzing-does-not-feature-slots concern was raised last year too and changed nothing. Jameson Williams was in my camp notes — they were scheming him the ball more — and he has quietly become an elite after-the-catch receiver, top-five in YAC among high-volume receivers while still running deep routes. Another thousand-yard season with spike weeks is the bet. Isaac TeSlaa had the sluggish camp I noted; the coaches want a bigger route tree before he matters.

TEs

Sam LaPorta is where the coordinator change pays off: top-ten in points per game two years running despite fourth-fiddle target status, and now his play caller is the one guy with a track record of force-feeding tight ends. Offseason back surgery is the risk; camp reports say he is on track. Top-three upside if the usage bump is real.

Sept 6. Jameson Williams cleared a thousand yards on under seventy catches with four hundred-yard games, and he is going outside the top fifty on a Lions offense projected third in implied points. The catch is the shape of the production: he has hit fifteen PPR points in only twenty-eight percent of his career games, he had a zero-catch game last year, and he is third in line behind St. Brown and LaPorta. His touchdowns average thirty yards, which is another way of saying the weeks he wins for you are the weeks he happens to hit a long one.

Sept 6 — the Jameson Williams argument, corrected. My memory of the coaching change is right and the splits are real. John Morton had his playcalling stripped in Week 10, and Jameson went from 21/355/3 over the first nine games (44 yards a game) to 44/762/4 over the last nine (85 a game) — he nearly doubled his fantasy scoring. But the argument does not carry into 2026, because Campbell is not calling plays: Detroit hired Drew Petzing from Arizona and he has the offense. Williams on him: "He spreads the ball out and gives everybody a chance. It's not one-sided" — which is honestly a negative for target concentration. The durable reasons to want him are different and better: he is 25, he signed three years and $83 million with $67 million guaranteed, and teams feed players they pay like that. He is the clear number two in the league's fourth-best receiver room.
Sam LaPorta — the Petzing connection is genuine, he is the coordinator credited with McBride's breakout in Arizona. But LaPorta is coming off back surgery and I could not find a timeline. Check before drafting.

Ranked nineteenth, and the ranking is hostage to one injury: new center Cade Mays (a good get from Carolina, as my notes said) went down with a wrist injury, and PFF says this is a top-thirteen unit when he returns. Penei Sewell — coming off a 95.1 season, the best of any lineman in football — moves to left tackle to replace the departed Taylor Decker, Tate Ratledge looked good at right guard as a rookie, Christian Mahogany struggled at left guard, and rookie Blake Miller starts at right tackle. Goff will feel it early.

Aidan Hutchinson still powers a real pass rush, but they lost four good front-seven pieces and both starting safeties ended last year hurt. Ranked seventeenth.

QB

Jordan Love owns the fifth-best passing grade in football over two years and finished twenty-first in fantasy anyway, because Green Bay runs and wins slow. If the line struggles enough to force throwing, his ceiling reappears. Safe second quarterback, matchup starter.

RBs

Josh Jacobs is the suspension story of draft season. The general manager said out loud on August 26 that the team has been "preparing" for Jacobs to be suspended over the May arrest (he was released without charges, but the league acts on its own schedule). When available he is a top-ten back with no real competition; the price should reflect the risk, and mine does. MarShawn Lloyd — my instinct on him was right — is the intended number two despite two lost seasons, and with Emanuel Wilson gone to Seattle the room is empty behind him. If Jacobs sits, Lloyd walks into a top-ten workload. He is a mandatory late-round pick in any draft where you take Jacobs and a decent one even when you don't.

WRs

Christian Watson was quietly the best receiver on the team when healthy — my note that they used him and Doubs interchangeably is now moot, because Doubs is gone and Watson got a big extension. Elite grade, WR1 ceiling, glass hamstrings and a surgically repaired knee. Matthew Golden was catching everything at camp per my notes and opens as the starting X. Jayden Reed has 1,626 slot yards and 13 slot touchdowns over three years — second only to St. Brown — and the thinned room might finally force Green Bay to leave him on the field in two-receiver sets. All three are WR3-priced bets on the same target pie; Reed is my pick of the trio in PPR.

TEs

Tucker Kraft is the tight end pick of the entire draft. Before his ACL tear he averaged 14.7 points a game — tied with Bowers and Kittle for second at the position — and his 10.8 yards after catch per reception is the best ever recorded by PFF at tight end. He is off the PUP list and practicing, the departed receivers left 30 percent of last year's targets unclaimed, and he goes in the sixth round. If the knee is right, he finishes top three.

Sept 6 — the backfield changed completely. The NFL placed Josh Jacobs on the Commissioner's Exempt list on August 30; he cannot practice or play and there is no return date, with a first court appearance on September 10. Worth knowing for roster purposes: the exempt list is not an IR-eligible designation, so a manager who drafts him burns a real bench spot while he sits in limbo. The job falls to MarShawn Lloyd, who has six career carries and just came through his first healthy camp, with Kaleb Johnson — acquired from Pittsburgh the same day Jacobs was exempted — behind him and still learning the offense. At receiver, Christian Watson is now the clear number one with Doubs and Wicks both gone, which is the cleanest opportunity story on the roster; the caution is that he has missed games in every season of his career.

Sept 6 — Kraft, corrected. I have been saying he was TE2 last year and that is not right. He played eight games before tearing an ACL in Week 8, averaging 14.7 a game with 2.56 yards per route run, which was second at the position. Elite per-game, not a TE2 finish. Reports this camp are overwhelmingly positive with no PUP, but Green Bay will manage his usage through the first half. Jayden Reed has a real role but a crowded one — he, Christian Watson and Matthew Golden are described as a three-way split, which caps all of them.

Ranked 28th, and the honest read: Zach Bako-Bewele at right tackle is the only starter PFF trusts — two straight seasons above 80. Jordan Morgan, Aaron Banks, Sean Rhyan, and Anthony Belton have one decent season among them. This is the biggest threat to everything above.

Sept 6 update. PFF has this twenty-eighth, and the only starter they are confident in is the right tackle. That matters more than usual now, because with Josh Jacobs unavailable the backfield falls to a runner with six career carries.

Young and rising, but Micah Parsons is expected to open the season on the PUP list — the ceiling arrives at midseason, not Week 1. Ranked ninth.

QB

Kyler Murray was a top-twelve fantasy quarterback in points per game for five straight seasons before the injuries, and his rushing bounced back to 5.8 attempts a game last year. Now he gets the best receiver he has ever played with — Justin Jefferson grades better than DeAndre Hopkins did when Hopkins helped Murray finish as the overall QB2. In the eleventh round he is the perfect second quarterback who might just be your starter by October.

RBs

Aaron Jones has missed at least five games in two of the past three seasons with nagging hamstring, shoulder, and hip issues, and he posted a career-low yards per carry last season with drops in his explosive-run rate. Jones, now the second-oldest back likely to make a roster, goes around the eighth or ninth round. Jordan Mason is going in a similar range for the opposite reason: he has been one of the most efficient runners in football — third among all backs since 2022 in yards per carry, yards after contact, and first-down rate. Training camp reports say Mason showed up in incredible shape after dropping weight and has outplayed Jones, pushing for the primary role. And the scheme move seals it: the Vikings' new outside-zone attack is the exact system Mason ran in San Francisco, where he was the RB10 in fantasy for seven weeks as a starter. Mason gets the goal-line work either way and is the Viking back to draft. Rookie Demond Claiborne lurks in deep leagues.

WRs

Justin Jefferson's thirtieth-place finish last year was entirely a quarterback problem — his catchable-target rate fell off a cliff with Wentz and McCarthy throwing. With Murray he goes right back to the top five, and he is being drafted like a top-eight receiver instead of a top-three one. Jordan Addison was my "WR2 at a WR3 price" call, and it is half right: the price is good, but Minnesota signed Jauan Jennings, who grades better and may take the two-receiver-set snaps. Addison is a fine mid-rounder, not a steal.

TEs

Nothing draftable while T.J. Hockenson's role settles — wait and see.

Sept 6 — the real Jordan Mason case. I had this thesis half right and the strongest part of it was the part I was not saying. The goal line is his: forty percent of the carries inside the five against Aaron Jones's twenty, thirty percent against twenty inside the ten, and a six-to-two touchdown edge. And the scheme fit is measurable — 5.6 yards a carry on outside zone against 4.7 on everything else. What I had wrong: this is not a new scheme under a new coordinator. Wes Phillips was retained; O'Connell has run zone since 2022 and the change is mid-zone to wider zone, pushed by new assistant head coach Frank Smith, whose Miami wide-zone unit led the league in yards per carry in 2023. Nobody reported a ten-pound weight loss either — Phillips said only that he "dropped some pounds," and Mason is still listed at 230. Two real risks: O'Connell's teams have finished twenty-eighth, twenty-eighth, fourteenth and twenty-seventh in rush attempts, and Mason's pass-block grade of 25.1 is second-worst among NFL backs with a three percent target share against Jones's 11.6. He is a touchdown-dependent flex with a real path to more. At his price I am taking him.

Ranked twelfth with the widest health variance in football. Four of five starters missed at least three games last year. When Christian Darrisaw is right he is a top left tackle, Will Fries and Brian O'Neill are quality on the right side, second-year Donovan Jackson develops at left guard, and Blake Brandel replaces the retired Ryan Kelly at center. Healthy, this is a top-ten unit.

Sept 6 update. I want to be careful with this one because the ranking and the reality point different ways. Mike Clay has this line eleventh, but PFF grades the interior as the problem — Will Fries thirty-first among guards despite his contract, Blake Brandel twenty-fifth at center in his first year replacing Ryan Kelly. The tackles are fine. What actually changed this summer is health: Christian Darrisaw is fully recovered and Brian O'Neill came through camp clean, so a unit that was still being priced for last year's injuries should be better than its reputation. Note that Keith Carter is an internal promotion from assistant line coach, not an outside hire, so do not treat him as a new-voice catalyst.

Lost four 500-snap players including both starting defensive tackles, rebuilt through the draft. A slow start is likely before the talent shows. Ranked tenth — bench them early, watch them late.

QB

The battle I predicted: Tua Tagovailoa probably starts while Michael Penix Jr. rehabs his ACL. Tua has fed elite fantasy receivers before, so the offense functions either way, but neither quarterback is draftable in a normal league.

RBs

Bijan Robinson has finished top-three at the position two years running with over 1,400 rushing yards and 60-plus catches each season, and his new head coach's entire history says feed the star. Brian Robinson Jr. replacing Allgeier as the backup changes nothing at the goal line. The only knock — and the reason Gibbs edges him for the top spot — is the line, where Jake Matthews just posted his worst run-blocking year and the right tackle spot got worse. Bijan is a top-two pick without hesitation.

WRs

Drake London signed for $100 million guaranteed, as my notes said, and he has earned an 89-plus receiving grade two years straight — only Puka and St. Brown can say the same. Every player who stole targets from him last year is gone. Two honest concerns: the quarterback situation, and the strange fact that no Stefanski offense has ever produced a top-fifteen fantasy receiver in seven seasons. London is better than anyone Stefanski has ever coached, and my "better with Penix" note may get tested by midseason. He is a top-ten pick at the position with one asterisk. Jahan Dotson competing for the two spot is worth a note, nothing more.

TEs

Kyle Pitts finally broke out — fifth among tight ends in points per game — and immediately got a new coaching staff and quarterback uncertainty. The talent was never the question. Top-ten tight end pick with top-five upside and a real bust floor.

Sept 6. Worth flagging as a shootout candidate: Atlanta's defense is projected around twenty-eighth after losing Jalon Walker to an ACL tear and James Pearce Jr. to suspension. A defense that cannot get off the field turns into pass volume, and Drake London is the receiver who collects it.

Sept 6 — on Kyle Pitts, be careful. Stefanski is confirmed and he does love a tight end, but the same analysis that fades Drake London does it on the grounds that Stefanski spreads targets broadly — and you cannot use that as a reason to fade the receiver and ignore it for the tight end. The quarterback is also unsettled: Penix is coming off an ACL and was not doing eleven-on-eleven, Tua started the preseason opener, and no Week 1 starter has been named.

Ranked ninth, with the Callahan effect still to come. Chris Lindstrom is the best run-blocking guard in football (three seasons above 90), Jake Matthews is still a fine pass protector at 34, Matthew Bergeron and Ryan Neuzil hold the interior, and Jawaan Taylor — a pass protector more than a run blocker — replaces the retired McGary at right tackle. Callahan has made worse groups great.

Fifty-seven sacks last year was second in football, but they lost two good front-seven players, and edge James Pearce Jr. is expected to face league discipline from a February arrest. Regression says situational only. Ranked twentieth.

QB

Bryce Young finished 28th in points per game. Superflex only.

RBs

Jonathon Brooks is the mid-round bet of the year. He was the consensus top back in the 2024 class — no weaknesses in the scouting profile — before two ACL tears in the same knee took two seasons. Carolina sat him all of last year on purpose, let Rico Dowdle walk, and added nobody, which tells you the plan. Then Chuba Hubbard strained a hamstring mid-camp and handed Brooks the starter reps. His price has been climbing daily from the eleventh round; even a round early he is worth it, because he is the rare late back with an every-down path that requires no injury. My "super talented but is he healthy" question — the answer, finally, is yes. Chuba Hubbard on track for Week 1 becomes the discount side of the timeshare and a fine later pick that hedges the Brooks bet.

WRs

Tetairoa McMillan — a thousand-yard rookie year, the Offensive Rookie of the Year, and total continuity of coach, coordinator, and quarterback. Canales has a career-long habit of funneling end-zone targets to his X receiver (Mike Evans and DK Metcalf both feasted under him), and McMillan already owns that role. Safe WR2 with a touchdown-driven top-ten path. Jalen Coker got a three-year extension they did not have to give — my "they believe in him" note confirmed — and he is the free-square fourth receiver if this offense grows.

TEs

Nothing draftable.

Ranked 26th, and it is entirely about the tackles: Ikem Ekwonu (ruptured patella in the playoffs, on the PUP list — my note) and Taylor Moton are both out to open the season. The stand-ins are decent — Rasheed Walker, signed from Green Bay exactly as I noted, is a solid pass protector, and first-round rookie Monroe Freeling starts on the right — with Damien Lewis, Luke Fortner, and Robert Hunt inside. PFF says this is a top-twelve unit once the starters return.

They added Devin Lloyd (an 87.9-grade linebacker, my "awesome" note stands), Jaelen Phillips, and got Jaycee Horn back — but the schedule is the sixth-worst in football for defenses. Real-life better, fantasy irrelevant. Ranked 24th.

QB

Tyler Shough — my sleeper call from the spring, and the numbers back it hard: from Week 12 on he was the fifth-best fantasy quarterback in football, averaging 17.6 points a start with real rushing production. The additions of Etienne and Tyson should make the offense better even if they tilt it toward the run. He goes undrafted or in the last round in most leagues and might be a weekly starter by October. I am taking him everywhere as a second quarterback.

RBs

Travis Etienne signed for $47 million with $28 million guaranteed, which locks in top-25 volume — and that is where the good news stops. He is leaving the fifteenth-ranked run-blocking team for the thirty-first, his yards before contact are about to get ugly, and the Moore pattern above caps the passing-game work that would rescue his floor. At his mid-fourth-round price you are paying for volume in a bad situation. My camp note that he is getting the early-down work is exactly the shape of it. Alvin Kamara restructured to stay and owns third downs, as I noted — but his grades have fallen off a cliff and he is a deep-league flex at best now.

WRs

Chris Olave finished as the WR6 on a career-high nine touchdowns and got paid, as my notes said. He is a steady mid-range WR1 when healthy — and "when healthy" is doing heavy lifting for a man with five documented concussions. Have a plan behind him. Jordyn Tyson — the eighth overall pick, and my IR-stash idea is now the consensus play: his hamstring will cost him roughly two months and he may open on injured reserve, which makes him a free stash in any league with an IR spot. When he plays, the PPR profile I loved is intact.

TEs

Juwan Johnson had the great camp in my notes and is the late-round tight end name here, nothing more.

Sept 6 — Etienne is not the three-week rental everyone says. The tell is the contract. New Orleans signed him on March 11, before Kamara was hurt, for roughly 11.8 million a year with guarantees into 2027. Nobody pays that for a complement. Kellen Moore called the two "probably similar players," and by late July the beat had them splitting first-team reps. So the near-even split was always the plan, and Kamara returning moves Etienne from about seventy percent of the work back to the fifty he was always getting, not off a cliff. Worth knowing what nobody has actually reported: no beat writer has published a post-return snap split. Every collapse projection out there is analyst guesswork. My hesitation is not the role, it is the blocking — see the O-line note above.

Sept 6 — Juwan Johnson, with a caveat I had wrong. Jordyn Tyson is on short-term IR and is expected back in roughly two months, not out for the year. So the window where Johnson soaks up targets is real but it has an expiry date. And ESPN frames this as a run-first offense under Moore, which cuts against the "they have to throw" version of the thesis.

Ranked sixteenth overall but — critically — the RUN blocking ranked 31st last season, and that is the number that matters for Etienne. Kelvin Banks Jr. led all rookie linemen last year at left tackle, they added David Edwards at guard, Erik McCoy is quality at center, and Taliese Fuaga needs a third-year leap at right tackle. Pass protection fine, run lanes scarce.

Sept 6 update — this one matters and the rankings are hiding it. The Saints lost Dillon Radunz to a torn ACL on August 9 and he is out for the season; he started ten of fifteen games last year and his replacement is a fourth-round rookie with a shoulder problem of his own. More importantly, the lists that have this line around eleventh to sixteenth are blending run and pass blocking together. 4for4, the one source that isolates run blocking, has New Orleans in the bottom five. That is the number that matters for a running back, and it is the reason I cooled on Etienne.

Demario Davis left for the Jets, Kaden Elliss came back from Atlanta, and last year's fantasy finish leaned on unrepeatable touchdowns. Ranked 25th.

QB

Baker Mayfield's 2025 was wrecked by oblique and shoulder injuries that tanked his accuracy, but the rushing production stayed — and the truth lands between his QB4 season of 2024 and last year's mess. In the twelfth round he is a top-shelf second quarterback and a fine starter in good matchups.

RBs

Bucky Irving quietly carried one of the heaviest workloads in football while grading near the top of the position over two years. Last year's injuries and an offseason setback knocked his price down, and it never recovered even though he has been fully healthy since. Robinson's scheme feeds backs in the passing game and spreads goal-line work more evenly — both good for him. A discounted RB1 bet in the third round. Kenny Gainwell followed from the Steelers, where he was fifth among all backs in receiving yards; he is a top-tier handcuff with a real, if uncomfortable, chance to just take the job if Irving is not the same player.

WRs

Emeka Egbuka steps into the Z-receiver role in this scheme family — the same role that produced top-five seasons for Drake London, Puka Nacua, and Cooper Kupp over the past five years. His rookie inconsistency traced to horrendous target quality, not his play. The toe injury he is nursing is day-to-day and worth watching into September, but the role is the thing, and the role is gold. Chris Godwin was second among all receivers in points per game in this offense in 2024 before the ankle dislocation; if he is finally right, he is a steal in the ninth — but Egbuka's rise and his own recovery make the range of outcomes as wide as any receiver in football. Jalen McMillan scored seven touchdowns in the final five games of 2024 and then lost 2025 to a scary neck injury; with Evans gone he is the end-of-draft flier who could matter fast.

TEs

Nothing draftable.

Sept 6. My read on Bucky Irving holds up better than most things I believed this summer. Bowles on July 29: "He's full speed. He's full-go right now." Rachaad White left in free agency, which clears the competition I was worried about. Two things to price in anyway: Sean Tucker survived cuts and is expected to handle goal line, which caps the touchdowns, and Kenny Gainwell takes passing downs. On Emeka Egbuka, the opportunity is obvious with Mike Evans gone and Godwin declining, but he sprained a toe in August and the status was still unresolved as of September 5 — toe injuries on receivers tend to linger the whole year.

Sept 6 — do not forget Chris Godwin. With Mike Evans gone to San Francisco there is a target vacuum in Tampa, and Godwin is going outside the top thirty-six receivers. Health is the only real question; the opportunity is not in doubt.

Ranked third in football. Tristan Wirfs just posted a career-best 92.7 and has never graded below 80 in pass protection, Luke Goedeke did not allow a sack or a hit all season on the right side, Graham Barton keeps emerging at center, and Ben Bredeson and Cody Mauch fill the guard spots. This line is the quiet reason to trust every Buccaneer above.

Sept 6 update. This is the one line in the group where nobody disagrees — PFF third, RotoWire third, no dissent anywhere I looked. Tristan Wirfs graded a career-high 92.7. When I am deciding between backs in the same range, this is the tiebreaker I trust most, because line quality is the input that is most stable week to week.

Average across the board, lost their best corner, Lavonte David retired. Ranked thirteenth.

QB

Jacoby Brissett finished as the QB9 last season on enormous garbage-time volume, averaging over 21 points a game across his twelve starts — and he is currently in a CONTRACT HOLDOUT, which is the single biggest risk in this offense. Rookie Carson Beck looms as a late-season replacement either way. If Brissett plays, the volume makes him a sneaky Superflex value; if he doesn't, everything below gets worse.

RBs

Jeremiyah Love went third overall — the highest a running back has been drafted since Saquon Barkley, and every back taken in the top twenty over the past five years finished as a top-twelve rookie. He also has a high ankle sprain that will hamper roughly the first month, exactly the window when my notes had him as a question mark. The run blocking here ranked fourth-worst in football, so temper the rookie-year expectations even after he is right. Tyler Allgeier is the early-season value while Love mends, and Trey Benson hangs around the committee. James Conner, at 30 and coming off the foot injury, may not even survive final cuts — my age worry was right, and he is only a stash in leagues where roster spots are free.

WRs

This is where my spring notes and the research agree loudest. Michael Wilson will play the Puka Nacua role — LaFleur said it out loud — and Wilson already lived it: over the final eight weeks of last season he scored the second-most PPR points of ANY receiver in football. He is not Puka, and Trey McBride eats first, but Wilson in the double-digit rounds is one of my favorite picks anywhere. Marvin Harrison Jr. gets the Davante Adams role, and after two seasons of touchdown-dependent mediocrity this is the make-or-break year — his per-game numbers were identical with Kyler and with Brissett, so the quarterback was never the excuse. High-risk flex with name-brand upside. My BAFFL plan of pairing MHJ with Wilson covers both outcomes and I am keeping it.

TEs

Trey McBride set the single-season record for receptions by a tight end last year and finished sixth among ALL receivers in points per game. Two things pull the other way: LaFleur wants balance (fewer than 649 pass attempts, guaranteed) and the Brissett holdout — no backup quarterback alive feeds a tight end like that. He is still the 1A or 1B tight end with Bowers; just watch the holdout news.

Ranked 22nd with a clean split: the left side is fine — Paris Johnson Jr. has graded above 77 in pass protection two years running, and Isaac Seumalo arrived from Pittsburgh — while the right side of Isaiah Adams and Elijah Wilkinson is a real problem. Hjalte Froholdt holds the middle. Bad news for a rookie runner who needs lanes.

They did almost nothing to fix the league's worst-ranked situation and kept the same coordinator. Ranked 32nd — the one defense I will not stream all year.

QB

Matthew Stafford won MVP at 37 on a career-best touchdown rate and career-low interceptions — the exact profile that regresses. The math says a fall to roughly QB18 territory even in a great offense. Matchup streamer.

RBs

Kyren Williams is one of only four backs to finish top-twelve in points per game three years running, and he keeps the passing-down work — which is why he stays the fantasy asset even though Blake Corum matched his rushing grade exactly (87.0 apiece) in a drive-by-drive rotation. My "rather have Corum than Kyren" lean has real evidence behind it on the ground: Corum led the entire league in positive-run rate. But until Corum earns receiving snaps, his ceiling is capped, and Kyren's floor is the bankable one. Draft Kyren as a low-end RB1 and Corum as the league's best cheap insurance — ideally both.

WRs

Puka Nacua is the number-one ranked receiver in football — a 96.3 grade that leads the position by a mile — and my notes on him need the full context: the groin issue is minor, and the civil lawsuit from New Year's Eve is real but unresolved, with no NFL action taken and depositions pushed past the season opener. My gut said he plays, and the league's inaction so far agrees. Draft him top-three with the news on. Davante Adams is the avoid: he turns 34, his 14 touchdowns came on an end-zone target share nobody in twenty years has repeated, and the emerging tight end takes his red-zone throne. A frustrating WR3 priced like a WR2.

TEs

Terrance Ferguson is the second-year leap candidate — the team is committing to more three-receiver and multiple-tight-end looks, and PFF flagged him as a top sleeper. Late-round tight end with a red-zone role opening up.

Sept 6 — three things, and two of them are warnings. First, Kyren Williams is a committee, and I should stop pretending otherwise. Nate Atkins of The Athletic wrote on September 1 that the Rams "will continue to use a backfield timeshare with Williams and Blake Corum," and Corum had double-digit touches in seven of the last eleven games. That late-season dip I remembered was Corum, not injury.
Second, Alaric Jackson and Puka Nacua are both still under NFL review, with Schefter reporting on August 30 that no exempt-list placement was imminent — which means any suspension lands mid-season, and mid-season is worse than Week 1.
Third, the one I like: Terrance Ferguson. He is not going to line up as a receiver the way our local coverage keeps suggesting — Rams On SI says the opposite. But the personnel shift is real, LA is expanding its 13-personnel usage from 30.5 percent of snaps, he replaces Tutu Atwell as the vertical element, and 15 of his 31 rookie targets travelled 20-plus yards. The Rams carry the highest implied team total of any tight end situation at 26.6.

Ranked eleventh with one enormous asterisk: left tackle Alaric Jackson may face a suspension — he was arrested in June on a domestic battery charge that prosecutors routed to a diversion program, the NFL is reviewing it, and he was already suspended two games in 2024 under the same policy. If he sits, the replacement is rookie Keagen Trost or a hoped-for veteran signing, and my "this could really hurt the Rams" note becomes the story of their season. Steve Avila and Kevin Dotson are the only guard duo in football who both graded above 75, with Coleman Shelton at center and Warren McClendon at right tackle replacing the retired Havenstein.

Sept 6 update. Subjective rankings put this in the fifth-to-eleventh band, but the Rams led the entire NFL in adjusted line yards at 5.50. When the measured run-blocking number and the eyeball ranking disagree this much, I side with the measurement.

The number-one ranked fantasy defense in football. Garrett, McDuffie, and Watson joined a unit that was already fifth, and there are whispers about an Aaron Donald return. The schedule is brutal, but the talent is overwhelming. Draft them first among defenses.

QB

Brock Purdy has finished top-twelve in all three seasons as a starter — through a loaded roster and through an injury-wrecked one — and he is being drafted outside the top twelve anyway, now with the best receiving corps he has ever had. That is a value, plain and simple.

RBs

Christian McCaffrey led all running backs in total points last season, and he did it the strange way: modest rushing numbers and wide-receiver-level receiving work. The warning lights are real — 3.9 yards a carry, declining long speed on the tracking data, age 30 with the injury file — which is why he slips out of the elite tier into the middle of the first round. The touches are guaranteed; the explosiveness is the question. My Kaelon Black handcuff note stands for deep leagues, with the caveat that the depth chart behind CMC is genuinely unsettled.

WRs

Mike Evans at 33 brings the most reliable touchdown résumé of his generation to an offense that manufactures red-zone chances — but his blocking has slipped badly, and in a Shanahan run game that can cost snaps on early downs. He is a touchdown-driven WR3 with famous-name pricing; fine at cost, not above it. Deebo Samuel reclaims the Z with Pearsall out — he was the WR7 through five weeks last season before the heel and the Daniels injury sank Washington. As a mid-to-late pick he is one of my favorite veterans on the board. Christian Kirk mans the slot when his calf lets him. De'Zhaun Stribling — my late-round hunch — went 33rd overall, but the research says his rookie role is rotating with Evans on early downs; the real payoff is 2027. Deep leagues only, exactly as I originally wrote.

TEs

George Kittle tore his Achilles in the playoffs and is already off the PUP list, ahead of schedule with a real shot at Week 1 — and with Pearsall gone his target share climbs. He has finished top-six in points per game eight straight seasons. The discount created by the injury makes him a buy, with a cheap second tight end as the insurance policy.

Sept 6. Careful with George Kittle. Every optimistic report I can find is from July — running routes, "definitely not one hundred percent," aiming at Week 1 while calling Australia "a stretch." I found nothing from September. That is six-week-old news on a 33-year-old coming off a January Achilles.
The name to actually chase here is De'Zhaun Stribling. Second-round rookie, and ESPN's Nick Wagoner says he "continues to produce at a high level regardless of who he is on the field with" — eight catches in a single joint practice, and Trent Williams saying he does not know how he fell out of the first round. With Pearsall out for the year and Christian Kirk hurt, the door is open and his draft position has already jumped from outside 200 to inside 170.

Ranked tenth, and it is really a ranking of one man: Trent Williams, at 37, posted a 91.1 grade for the fifth time in six years. Dominick Puni needs a bounce-back at right guard after a sophomore slump, Colton McKivitz is steady at right tackle, and left guard Connor Colby (a 52.4 grade last year) is the weak link next to Williams. When Williams ages, this whole ranking goes with him.

A league-low twenty sacks last season, but the rebound case is simple: Bosa, Warner, and Greenlaw — their three best players — combined for almost no snaps. Health equals a return to relevance. Ranked sixteenth; a nice mid-season addition if the stars stay upright.

QB

Sam Darnold grades like a top-ten passer and finished 27th in fantasy because Seattle never throws. The case for more volume this year is real — thinner backfield, a full offseason with Shaheed, inevitable regression from the defense — but with no rushing production he needs all of it to matter. Late-round second quarterback.

RBs

My triple-star Jadarian Price — here is the full picture. Seattle took him 32nd overall, Kenneth Walker left for Kansas City, and Charbonnet tore his ACL in the playoffs, so the rookie should lead the team in carries from day one. But ESPN's Brady Henderson reports it looks like "more of a three-man committee while Seattle waits for Charbonnet": George Holani has earned the passing downs (the team is high on him after his playoff cameo), Emanuel Wilson — the 226-pounder from Green Bay — takes the goal line, and Charbonnet is rehabbing ahead of schedule with a return expected around Week 5, not midseason. Price caught only fifteen passes in college; my camp note that he has been catching it well is the swing factor for his ceiling. My "yes I believe" stands on talent — he averaged six yards a carry at Notre Dame — but at his RB27 price you are buying a committee lead, not a workhorse. Fumbles were his college wart; watch it.

WRs

Jaxon Smith-Njigba — the reigning Offensive Player of the Year — posted at least 90 yards in all but two games last season. The only reason he ranks third among receivers instead of first is the coordinator change. Draft him top-five at the position with confidence. Rashid Shaheed should see more work, exactly as my notes said — and the buzz around camp is stronger than that: there is real reporting he could pass Cooper Kupp as the clear number two. He is the late-round Seahawk to draft. Tory Horton — my other triple-star — is the one my research pushes back on: the camp reporting is thin and he sits behind Shaheed and Kupp on every depth chart I can find. Keep him as a deep-league flier, not a conviction pick.

TEs

Nothing draftable.

Sept 6 — cooling on Jadarian Price. Brady Henderson has Seattle rolling with Price "for now" while mixing in a heavy dose of George Holani, and Holani takes third downs and pass protection, which was exactly my worry about Price's blocking. Zach Charbonnet returns around Week 5, right as the schedule hardens to San Francisco and Denver. That makes Price a four-week rental at a price that keeps climbing. The talent is real — big, fast, first-round pedigree — so he is a better bet in the leagues where long touchdowns carry more weight.

Ranked fifteenth. Charles Cross is quality at left tackle, second-year Grey Zabel finished his rookie year strong and is the key to the whole unit taking a step, Jalen Sundell and Abraham Lucas are solid enough, and right guard Anthony Bradford — three straight years grading below 55 — is the weak link the champs keep surviving.

Sept 6 update. This is the biggest disagreement in the league — the sources I checked range from fourth all the way to fifteenth. When the spread is that wide it usually means the unit is young or reshuffled and nobody trusts their own read yet. I would not lean on a Seattle back for line reasons in either direction.

They were the runaway number-one fantasy defense, and now come the headwinds: seven return touchdowns that will not repeat, three quality departures (Coby Bryant, Riq Woolen, Boye Mafe), and a bottom-five schedule. Still a top-five unit — ranked third — just no longer the free championship they were last August.